Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Mar 17 2024 04:50:25 ACUS02 KWNS 170450 SWODY2 SPC AC 170449 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may move inland off the Gulf of Mexico into portions of the northern and central Florida peninsula early Monday, perhaps accompanied by some risk of severe weather. ....Synopsis... Split flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific likely will remain amplified through this period, with a new high beginning to form within building ridging, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, models still indicate that the initially prominent high over Pacific Northwest vicinity will gradually become more suppressed, but blocking will be maintained, with the persistent low over the Southwest remaining quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograding a bit to the west of the lower Colorado Valley. To the east of this regime, a vigorous short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the lower Missouri Valley, through the south Atlantic coast vicinity, before turning eastward and offshore by late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale mid/upper troughing centered near the Atlantic Seaboard may assume a neutral tilt, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence closer to the coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front advancing southeastward in its wake, through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ....Florida... In advance of the cold front, models still indicate that low-level flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthen (up to 30-40+ kt around 850 mb) during the day across northern into central portions of the peninsula. It appears unlikely that the Atlantic sea-breeze will be maintained near coastal areas through peak afternoon destabilization, except perhaps across southeastern Florida, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to strong inhibition. Due to spread concerning shorter wavelength developments within the large-scale flow, depictions of potential convective evolution into and through this period remain varied. However, while the potential for vigorous thunderstorms to develop, or be maintained, across interior and eastern portions of the peninsula appears low, it might not be out of the question that an organized cluster could spread off the northeastern Gulf into northern and west central portions of the peninsula early in the period, accompanied by some risk for damaging wind gusts before weakening. ...Kerr.. 03/17/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .