Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 17 2024 00:57:22

ACUS01 KWNS 170057
SWODY1
SPC AC 170055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are
forecast across portions of south-central/southeast Texas tonight.

....Central TX to the TX coastal plain and southwest LA...
A mid-level low over the Desert Southwest will move little through
early Sunday morning.  Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a
lower-latitude shortwave trough moving east-northeast across
northern Mexico, and this feature will move across southern TX
tonight.  A corresponding increase in large-scale ascent and an
accompanying intensification of mid-level flow will overspread
south-central TX later this evening and into the coastal plain
overnight.  00z Corpus Christi and Brownsville observed soundings
show 8 to 8.5 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates with strong
west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow.  Short-term model
guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms developing over
northern Mexico this evening with additional development near/east
of the Rio Grande later this evening.  CAPE/shear profiles favor
organized thunderstorms, with supercells being the preferential mode
at least early in the convective life cycle.  A threat of large to
very large hail is likely with the more robust supercells.  A
gradual transition to greater storm coverage and clustering of
storms will probably occur along the stalled frontal zone draped
over the region.  Severe gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible as
some upscale growth occurs, and especially as storms move east into
a more moisture-rich environment near the coastal plain late.

...Smith.. 03/17/2024

$$

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