Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Mar 16 2024 17:27:21 ACUS02 KWNS 161727 SWODY2 SPC AC 161725 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including an organizing cluster or two, are expected from central Texas coast eastward along the central Gulf Coast Sunday morning into the early evening. Damaging gusts and hail are possible with this activity from the Middle/Upper Texas Coast eastward along the central Gulf Coast vicinity. ....Gulf Coast... A series of midlevel shortwave perturbations will migrate through enhanced mid/upper level westerly flow over the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Sunday. Convection will likely be ongoing somewhere from east TX toward coastal LA and the adjacent Gulf waters during the morning hours. However, large spread continues in 12z CAM guidance regarding placement of early convection and subsequent downstream evolution through the morning and into the afternoon. Height tendencies will remain fairly neutral through much of the period across the Gulf Coast. However, a cold front will be draped across the northern Gulf to near the LA and Mid/Upper TX Coasts Sunday morning. The front will not move much or only slowly sag southward through the morning. Meanwhile, most guidance depicts a cluster or small MCS developing/ongoing near the TX coast early in the period. Depending on the surface boundary position, and where exactly this convection is located, severe thunderstorm potential is possible along the Gulf Coast through the afternoon as convection shifts east. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty, and there is some potential severe potential will remain just offshore. Additionally, given timing of convection during the morning, degree of downstream destabilization and impact of low-level inhibition due to limited heating foster additional uncertainty. If the surface boundary remains inland, supporting a very moist boundary-layer, favorable vertical shear will support organized convection. The main concern with storms, especially if a small MCS or convective line develops, will be strong gusts/locally damaging winds. Enhanced 0-1 km SRH within the frontal zone also may support a brief spin-up. Given aforementioned uncertainties in placement, timing, destabilization, etc., will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk. If confidence increases a small area of the central Gulf Coast (southeast LA, far southern MS/AL) may need outlook upgrade in later outlooks. ....Central Texas... Elevated thunderstorms are expected during the morning and afternoon. While the surface cold front will sag southward through the day, warm advection and abundant midlevel moisture atop the cooler boundary-layer will remain in place. Modest midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear will support organized cells with some potential for sporadic hail approaching 1 inch diameter. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) as been expanded westward into parts of central TX to account for low-end hail potential. ...Leitman.. 03/16/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .