Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 16 2024 16:23:22

ACUS01 KWNS 161623
SWODY1
SPC AC 161621

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are
forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today
into tonight.

....TX...
Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and
scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low
and mid level warm advection regime.  This trend will continue
through much of the day, limiting heating and overall
destabilization.  While most of the daytime activity will be
non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk
area capable of hail.

By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach
the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of
strong to severe storms.  This activity will spread across the Rio
Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level
warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity.
All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the
night.  While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep
mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote
supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and
damaging wind gusts.  Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours
into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds.

...Hart/Weinman.. 03/16/2024

$$

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