Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Mar 16 2024 07:29:15 ACUS03 KWNS 160729 SWODY3 SPC AC 160728 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather may linger across parts of northern Florida into early Monday before diminishing. ....Synopsis... It appears that the split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific will remain amplified through this period. One initially prominent high centered over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to gradually become more suppressed Monday through Monday night, but not enough to impact the low over the Southwest, which is forecast to remain quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograde a bit farther across the lower Colorado Valley vicinity. At the same time, models indicate that a new high will begin to form within building ridging upstream, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream of this regime, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to continue digging from the lower Missouri Valley through the south Atlantic coast, before turning eastward offshore late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale troughing may assume a neutral tilt, centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence offshore of the south Atlantic coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front forecast to advance southward through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ....Florida... In advance of the cold front, models indicate that flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthening up to 30-50 kt around 850 mb during the day across the northern half of the peninsula. Any chance for the inland advance of the Atlantic sea-breeze seems limited to southeastern coastal areas, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to substantial inhibition. As a result, while the environment may remain conducive to organized convection (including supercell structures) in a narrow pre-frontal corridor beyond 12Z Monday, particularly across the Cross City and Gainesville vicinities, as low-level convergence and forcing for ascent weaken by mid/late morning, convective potential through the remainder of the period becomes more unclear. ...Kerr.. 03/16/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .