Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 16 2024 00:58:15

ACUS01 KWNS 160058
SWODY1
SPC AC 160056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across south TX tonight.
Large hail is the primary risk. A few strong storms will linger over
portions of the southeastern US this evening, including the risk for
gusty winds.

....01z Update...

Low-level confluence continues to sag south across deep south TX
early this evening. Gulf air mass is entrenched across this region
with 70s surface dew points observed south of COT-VCT. With
temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s strong instability is noted
across this region (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg). Both CRP and BRO
exhibit steep midlevel lapse rates with surface-6km bulk shear in
excess of 40kt, more than adequate for sustaining organized, deep
rotation. Several supercells have evolved west of the international
border and this activity should gradually propagate southeast into
this very buoyant, sheared environment. Have adjusted severe
probabilities a bit south to account for these storms advancing into
portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley.

Later tonight LLJ should increase across the Edwards Plateau and
warm advection should encourage additional elevated convection.
Forecast soundings suggest some of this activity may be robust but
hail should generally remain below severe levels across this region.

...Darrow.. 03/16/2024

$$

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