Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0264
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 16 2024 00:23:16

ACUS11 KWNS 160023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160022=20
TXZ000-160215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0264
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Areas affected...Southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54...

Valid 160022Z - 160215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to continue for a several more
hours. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats.
Weather watch issuance will likely be needed to replace WW 54.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar from Laughlin Air Force Base shows a
cluster of widely spaced severe storms in the vicinity of the Rio
Grande River, near and to the south of Eagle Pass and to the
south-southwest of Laredo. These storms are developing to the east
of an axis of moderate to strong instability, where the RAP has
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. Strong surface heating, weak
large-scale ascent and low-level convergence will likely continue to
support continued convective development for several more hours this
evening. The instability along with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to
8 C/km, and 55 knots of 0-6 km shear, evident on the Del Rio WSR-88
VWP, will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones
near 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of
cells. Wind damage will also be possible.

...Broyles.. 03/16/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4PzdZaWfovfzWt3EI8zKpTgmoDuq8UP6JunvREGlrC6mw-e9JBOiWUXiPaksv24VbpFoV7px1=
XCOnuVHM2XYZPrHCQk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   27149872 26969915 27059945 27629974 28430049 29110074
            29380002 29069884 28009830 27409849 27149872=20


=3D =3D =3D
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