Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Mar 15 2024 17:36:32 ACUS02 KWNS 151736 SWODY2 SPC AC 151735 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ....Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper low will fill as it moves slowly from the lower CO Valley across AZ, with some increase in mid and high level southwesterlies from Mexico into the southern Plains. Gradual height falls will also occur across that region, primarily overnight. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will dive south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while farther south, moderate westerly flow aloft persist across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the TX Panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak trough into southern TX. Here, a slow-moving wind shift is expected to provide a focus for rain and storms, as southerly winds maintain a moist and unstable air mass. ....Texas... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing early Saturday over much of western through north central TX, north of the surface front. Lift and moisture advection atop the surface cool layer will be aided by southerly 850 mb winds of 20-30 kt. Elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg, and perhaps up to 1000 J/kg will exist, with SBCAPE to the south rising to over 2000 J/kg. Activity near or just north of the boundary could pose some marginal hail risk, and perhaps even strong gusts given the robust model signal and ample instability. However, a greater risk of both hail and wind will be along and just south of the front as an uncapped air mass and minimal heating yield warm-sector development by midday. Bouts of storms are expected, first over central into southeast TX and eventually into southwest LA, then from late evening into the overnight from the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. Conditional on storm mode, isolated significant hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, and deep layer shear increases with the approach of the aforementioned upper low to the west. Locally damaging wind is also expected, especially as storms merge overnight. ...Jewell.. 03/15/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .