Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 15 2024 08:48:57

ACUS48 KWNS 150848
SWOD48
SPC AC 150847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Latest medium-range model output indicates that large-scale
mid/upper trough amplification may proceed east of the Mississippi
Valley through the western Atlantic into early next week.
Thereafter, it appears that the initial significant digging short
wave perturbation will bottom out offshore of the southern Atlantic
Seaboard, before returning northeastward, as the upstream western
North American blocking regime breaks down.

The remnants of a weakening mid/upper low may then emerge from the
Southwest as a modest wave progressing east of the southern Rockies
through the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard during the middle
and latter portions of the work week.  This may provide support for
modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, and
across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico/Gulf coast into southern Mid
Atlantic vicinity.  However, it appears that low-level moisture
return will be limited in the wake of a preceding intrusion of cold
and/or dry air through much of the northern and eastern Gulf Basin.
This will probably tend to inhibit destabilization.  With shear also
tending to remain marginal, the risk for severe weather appears
generally low, though it may not be completely negligible.

...Kerr.. 03/15/2024

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