Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Mar 15 2024 07:28:00 ACUS03 KWNS 150727 SWODY3 SPC AC 150726 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ....Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ....Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ...Kerr.. 03/15/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .