Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0246
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 15 2024 00:27:52

ACUS11 KWNS 150027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150027=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-150230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0246
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma...Northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45...46...

Valid 150027Z - 150230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45, 46
continues.

SUMMARY...All severe hazards, including large hail, wind damage and
a potential for a few tornadoes are expected over the next couple
hours from southeast Oklahoma into northeast Texas
east-northeastward into central Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...Several discrete supercells are currently ongoing from
the vicinity of the Red River north of Dallas, east-northeastward
into southwest Arkansas. The storms are located just to the north
and west of a pocket of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is near
or above 2500 J/kg. The cluster of strong to severe storms will
continue to move eastward into the stronger instability over the
next couple of hours. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear,
will help sustain the stronger updrafts making large hail likely
with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will
be possible with the strongest of updrafts. In addition, low-level
shear is forecast to gradually increase, as a 40 knot jet develops
across the Ark-La-Tex early this evening. In response, the tornado
threat may continue. The WOFS currently is forecasting a locally
greater tornado risk from Little Rock extending west-southwestward
to near the Oklahoma-Arkansas state line over the next couple of
hours.

...Broyles.. 03/15/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-ImY0jUNcxYn2AdB4XecQtgUZizi-_k4AR_kP0zeAmnxMYCaLZ_v17t-gg7fdPUCM8Txwkw75=
TAIgZreCMM79LjrYUU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35379388 35239546 34919623 34189659 33459663 33229639
            33289579 33429447 33689296 33949204 34509149 35049140
            35419208 35379388=20


=3D =3D =3D
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