Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Mar 14 2024 19:39:09 AWUS01 KWNH 141939 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-150136- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0098 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 338 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...much of southern Missouri, much of northern Arkansas, eastern/southeastern Oklahoma, and a small part of north Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 141936Z - 150136Z Summary...Ongoing, mature MCS across eastern Oklahoma is prompting localized flash flood concerns while moving toward hillier terrain/lower FFGs in Arkansas/southern Missouri. Additionally, redevelopment along the southwestern flank of this MCS remains likely later this afternoon as a front surges southward over central Oklahoma. The flash flood risk will increase over time. Discussion...A mature MCS continues along an axis from near Joplin, MO to near Ada, OK. The complex has picked up forward speed over the past hour as expected, although embedded LEWPs/rotation has enabled occasional spots of 2-2.5 inch/hr rain rates to develop at times that have exceeded local FFGs. The airmass downstream of this MCS remains moist and strongly unstable, although low-level wind fields are weakening slightly and should continue to do so through the evening. This general regime (with occasional 2+ inch/hr rain rates in spots) should continue to translate east-northeastward in tandem with the MCS, resulting in occasional/spotty flash flood potential across northern Arkansas and southern Missouri through 01Z. Perhaps a greater flash flood threat may materialize across southeastern Oklahoma and adjacent areas of western Arkansas with time. A remnant outflow over the area (partially reinforced by lingering convection/updrafts across south-central through east-central Oklahoma) is likely to interact favorably with a dryline (just west of I-35) and a surging cold front moving through central Oklahoma) to reignite convection through the evening. The 15Z HRRR seems to have a handle on this scenario, and suggests that a greater coverage of 2+ inch/hr rain rates should materialize as storms orient more favorably for training through the afternoon and early evening. Pending convective trends, a small, targeted Moderate Risk area may need to be added to the ERO should increased flash flood potential materialize. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7jm105OFGRmQ7LDNzslRc8Tp14tDL7fdkV6keAiHhmWtNL5uBJNyV6w8rJZikj9Uwpso= K7Sj7v-vxwa_5ko1fmTYcyg$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...FWD...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH... SGF...SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38709255 38389061 37249013 35979069 35019242=20 33709429 33039660 33139814 33449846 34539789=20 35489699 37279480 38129398=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .