Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0234
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 14 2024 18:51:20

ACUS11 KWNS 141851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141850=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-142015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...Portions of far north-central TX into
central/eastern OK

Concerning...Tornado Watch 42...

Valid 141850Z - 142015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 42 continues.

SUMMARY...Very large hail up to 2-3 inches in diameter,
severe/damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes will remain possible
with intense thunderstorms this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells and bowing line segments are
ongoing early this afternoon across south-central into eastern OK.
With strong instability and deep-shear remaining in place across
this area per latest mesoanalysis, any supercell that can remain at
least semi-discrete will be capable of producing very large hail,
potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. Some clustering has also
recently occurred across east-central OK, and severe/damaging winds
of 55-70 mph may become an increasing concern with filtered daytime
heating and gradual steepening of low-level lapse rates. Recent VWPs
from KINX/KSRX indicate that the low-level flow has veered and
weakened slightly compared to a couple of hours ago, as a modestly
enhanced low-level jet becomes focused farther north across the mid
MS and OH Valleys. Still, there may be sufficient 0-1 km SRH to
support occasional updraft rotation, and some threat for a couple
tornadoes through the rest of the afternoon. The potential for
robust convective development across far north-central TX remains
uncertain, as upper ridging and a low-level cap may continue to
inhibit thunderstorms over the next couple of hours across this
area.

...Gleason.. 03/14/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9ZXzuGGsPz0XS9-hS-jn9ix_8ELDZRenWWu-H6i8ykR9uA2wTAJ11NwC7aYRsJSCGLM43KPsA=
ULEpSHo0bfq82horKU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33989778 34959671 35649599 36289573 36689533 36779481
            36529466 35939457 35329454 34549509 33999570 33549660
            33519804 33989778=20


=3D =3D =3D
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