Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 14 2024 17:10:21

ACUS02 KWNS 141710
SWODY2
SPC AC 141708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas
Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday.

....Synopsis...
On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest,
with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the
OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will
likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley
toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with
scattered rain and thunderstorms.

At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch
roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic,
with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states.

....Central TX across the Southeastern states...
Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley
toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise
locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain,
but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool
across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day
storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is
possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt
deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging
gusts.

Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along
the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets
of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow
will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage
may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains
valid.

...Jewell.. 03/14/2024

$$

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