Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 14 2024 08:27:15

ACUS48 KWNS 140827
SWOD48
SPC AC 140825

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Upper troughing is expected to deepen across the eastern CONUS on
D4/Sunday and D5/Monday before then gradually shifting off the East
Coast by early D6/Tuesday. Another shortwave trough may progress
through the OH Valley in the wake of this deep upper troughing on
D6/Tuesday, but a multi-model consensus suggest any troughing will
be offshore by early D7/Wednesday. Confluent flow is expected across
the central CONUS by this time, with a shortwave trough likely
moving across the Four Corners.

This synoptic evolution is expected to bring a dry and stable
airmass into much of the central and eastern CONUS from D4/Sunday
through at least early D7/Wednesday. The only exception is from
from south TX across the Gulf Coast and FL early D4/Sunday, where
modest low-level moisture will exist in the vicinity of a weak
remnant frontal zone. Some limited low-level moisture may remain
over FL on D5/Monday as well. Some isolated thunderstorms are
possible in these areas, but buoyancy will be limited. Dry and
stable conditions are expected elsewhere across the CONUS through
D6/Tuesday. Guidance suggests some moisture return may begin across
the southern Plains on D7/Wednesday, but predictability is limited
and the overall forecast confidence is low.

...Mosier.. 03/14/2024

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