Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 14 2024 07:29:47

ACUS03 KWNS 140729
SWODY3
SPC AC 140728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
HILL COUNTRY INTO SOUTH TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill
Country into South Texas on Saturday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
Mature southern-stream upper low is forecast to remain over the
southwestern CONUS while a strong northern-stream shortwave trough
matures into a mid-latitude cyclone over Ontario and the Upper Great
Lakes. A reservoir of modest low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in
the low/mid 60s) will likely be in place from south TX through the
Southeast States. A weakening cold front is expected to extend from
central SC west-southwestward across southern portions of the
Southeast states into south TX early Saturday.

Most of this front is forecast to slowly shift southward throughout
the day. The only exception is across south TX, where the influence
of a shortwave trough moving across central Mexico will help lower
surface pressures, strengthening low-level southerly flow. As a
result, this boundary is expected to sharpen and perhaps even start
progressing northward/northwestward as a warm front. Dewpoints south
of this front will likely be in the upper 60s. Large-scale forcing
for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough is expected
to interact with this low-level moisture and related buoyancy
overnight, supporting thunderstorms. Current guidance suggests
environmental conditions will support supercells capable of large to
very large hail. Even so, there is enough uncertainty regarding
position of the front and influence of antecedent storms, as well as
strength and timing of the shortwave, to preclude introducing any
severe probabilities higher than 5% with this outlook.

...Mosier.. 03/14/2024

$$

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