Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Mar 14 2024 06:06:55 AWUS01 KWNH 140606 FFGMPD ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-141204- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0096 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 205 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...northern MO...southeastern IA...north-central IL Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 140604Z - 141204Z Summary...Additional localized totals of 2-3" may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding. Discussion...Intense thunderstorms are becoming more organized across portions of the Middle MS Valley overnight, as indicated by continued cold cloud tops via GOES-East infrared imagery. Despite somewhat modest elevated instability (MU CAPE generally 250-1000 J/kg), convection has thrived in the vicinity of an 850 mb warm front with significant deep layer shear (40-55 kts) in the idealized right-exit region of a 110 kt jet streak over the Southern Plains (promoting large scale lift via upper-level divergence and diffluence). While total available tropospheric moisture is somewhat low compared compared to late spring/early summer, PWATs of 0.8-1.1 inches are between the 90th percentile and max moving average for this time of year (per SPC sounding climatology). Supercells in this environment have managed to produce rainfall rates exceeding 2"/hr at times, as bunkers right storm motion vectors support a east-northeast motion as slow as 25 kts (allowing for localized training along the paralleling elevated warm front). This has resulted in isolated totals of 2.0-3.5 inches around Topeka and Kansas City northeastward to Burlington. While these localized higher rainfall rates and totals have remained fairly isolated, continued intense convection may allow for a few more hours of rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr in the vicinity of already saturated areas across portions of northern MO and southeastern IA. Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible in this region with continued heavy rainfall, and would perhaps be most likely in the vicinity of the MO/IA/IL border region and eastward into north-central IL (downstream of the strongest convection at the time of writing). Given the latest hi-res guidance, additional localized totals of 2-3" are possible, ending across western portions of the area by 12z. Churchill ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-6wmHAF5_JiIGHLXdCbTfGVvJ95W3pYPQQ-pLHgAzp2VHJTzuPsESwdAwyUN_3Vgj1pW= 1HQQwY1xPFMEkHrTM7BJEsk$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LOT...LSX... ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 41839060 41698788 40898764 40028899 39089179=20 39319445 39959527 41099365=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .