Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0225
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 14 2024 03:11:48

ACUS11 KWNS 140311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140310=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-140515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0225
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Western and Central Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 140310Z - 140515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across the
remainder of eastern Kansas around midnight. The storms are forecast
to spread east-northeastward into Missouri during the early
overnight period. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed
across the region within the next 90 minutes.

DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level
trough over the Desert Southwest, with a mid-level jet in the base
of the system extending east-northeastward into the southern Plains
and northern Ozarks. A distinct mid-level vorticity max is located
over far southwest Kansas. This feature will move across the central
Plains late this evening. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of
the vorticity max, scattered strong thunderstorms are expected to
develop across south-central Kansas, and move east-northeastward
across eastern Kansas and Missouri. According to the RAP, MLCAPE
within this area is between 1000 and 1500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear is in
the 40 to 50 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates are from 7.5 to
8 C/km. This should support a severe threat overnight, especially
the stronger cells interact with the low-level jet. Supercells with
large hail appear likely, and wind damage will also be possible.

...Broyles/Hart.. 03/14/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!93Y_CfhTkPdJTUQPnLQfRBJm597gB67BZscF8yg21DZSjzAb-hHjQasW0zbsQueKXYCBnvPJm=
M4NO7hY64ahT5CVxi4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37899643 38439646 39129617 40039316 40209236 40029169
            39339119 38329112 37779177 37279309 37059441 37019556
            37059581 37329634 37899643=20


=3D =3D =3D
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