Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 14 2024 00:54:12

ACUS01 KWNS 140054
SWODY1
SPC AC 140052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS
AND NORTHWEST MO...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to peak in intensity
this evening and persist on an isolated basis overnight, from parts
of northern/central KS east towards the Lower Missouri Valley. Very
large hail and a few tornadoes are the primary threats early,
transitioning to a mixed large hail and damaging wind risk
overnight.

....KS to the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley...
Isolated strong to severe hail storms persist near the STL Metro
Area (for additional information please see MCD 222), with more
numerous strong to severe storms westward across the Lower MO Valley
through north-central KS. 00Z TOP sounding sampled a favorable
environment for very large hail with initially weak low-level flow
and ample effective bulk shear coupled with rather steep mid-level
lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. Low-level flow has increased over the
past hour per TWX VWP data and a few stronger/longer-lived
supercells may evolve within the north KS to Lower MO Valley
corridor during the next few hours with threats of very large hail
and a few tornadoes. The low-level jet/convergence will further
strengthening yielding increasing upscale growth later this evening.
The more prominent MCS/severe cluster development will probably
evolve east-northeast from ongoing convection across northeast KS. A
mixed large hail/damaging wind threat should generally be expected
as this activity shifts along the warm front later tonight towards
the MO/IL/IA border area.

...Grams.. 03/14/2024

$$

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