Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0220
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 13 2024 23:30:12

ACUS11 KWNS 132330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132329=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-140130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Northern Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 37...

Valid 132329Z - 140130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 37 continues.

SUMMARY...A potential for very large hail, wind damage and a tornado
or two is expected to develop across parts of northeast Kansas over
the next hour, extending eastward into parts of north-central
Missouri.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Topeka shows a
cluster of intensifying convection across parts Geary and Morris
Counties in Kansas. These cells are expected to grow upscale into a
rotating storm over the next hour. Any storm that can become mature
should eventually turn to the right to a more east-northeasterly
direction. RAP analysis suggests this convection is near a maximum
in instability, where MLCAPE is estimated to above 2000 J/kg. In
addition, the Topeka WSR-88D VWP has veering winds with height in
the lowest 2 km, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. This, along with
0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range will
support supercell development. Very large hail and a tornado will be
possible with this storm, or with additional intense cells that
mature over the next hour or two.=20

Additional storms are expected to develop further to the east, from
near the Kansas City Metro eastward into north-central Missouri.
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, along with moderate
deep-layer shear, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, evident on
forecast soundings, will also likely support supercell development.
Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats, although a
brief tornado will be possible.

...Broyles.. 03/13/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4foI3ys31Gnd7ocjssnxamlWvTCZDbwR40bCgk-qHzdz-40_oLpOQ31v7mjOcnD-yMI6qfJtj=
j0nZkI5toOy8JB5B-A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   38689488 38619597 38669644 38959677 39359665 39489620
            39499490 39459354 39359322 39089310 38749329 38719364
            38689488=20


=3D =3D =3D
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