Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Mar 13 2024 23:27:49 AWUS01 KWNH 132327 FFGMPD MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-140525- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0095 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 727 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Areas affected...northeastern KS into northern MO and adjacent MO Valley Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 132325Z - 140525Z Summary...Thunderstorm coverage and flash flood potential are expected to increase overnight across portions of the middle MO River Valley. Repeating and training of cells with rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible. There is some uncertainty with timing, but the flash flood threat is expected to be greatest after 03Z. Discussion...23Z surface observations and fading visible satellite imagery placed a surface low near DDC with a warm front extending eastward into MO, roughly 50 miles south of I-70. A bulged dryline was analyzed across south-central KS into central OK with early stages of convective initiation over eastern KS. 23Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed MLCAPE of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg south of the warm front in KS and MO, with weak to near-zero CIN, along with PWATs ranging from 0.7 to 1.1 inches. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery showed a mid-level shortwave over western KS, tracking toward the northeast with an upper level jet max over the southern High Plains, with RAP analysis estimates of 100-110 kt, on the south side of a western trough axis. Over the next 6 hours, as the shortwave over western KS and the larger scale trough over the West continues to advance downstream, upper level divergence and diffluence should increase across the MO Valley within the left exit region of the upper level jet max. In the lower levels, 850 mb wind speeds are forecast by the RAP to increase into the 40-50 kt range by 03-06Z over eastern KS, overrunning the warm front, leading to elevated convection along the NE/KS border, eastward into northern MO and northward toward the IA/MO border. Increased forcing in the lower and upper levels should lead to an expansion of organized thunderstorms through 03Z and while PWATs are modest within the pre-convective environment, sufficient shear is in place for organized, rotating storms which should help to boost precipitation efficiency. Bunkers-right supercell motions and upshear Corfidi vectors are generally west to east, or parallel to the slow moving warm front. Possible congealing of storms would have both a northeastward and eastward component to them, while additional upstream development may support repeating and training from the instability pool south of the warm front. 1-2 in/hr rates and 2+ inch totals in 2 to 3 hours time through 05Z may support localized flash flooding across the region, despite very dry antecedent conditions with area FFG values showing 1.5 to 2.5 inches in 3 hours. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9J1VZiipS18gkdbECfVeNzhklnH1BNb_9_nrtkM_hFczq_bwXqPQeF023ST9gqE0RxPH= ppvpUJ172whmmVOobZVyTC4$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...ICT...LSX...OAX...TOP... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 40889462 40049206 39119202 38939306 38919484=20 38869648 39029791 39689813 40159728 40699636=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .