Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Mar 13 2024 17:36:36 ACUS02 KWNS 131736 SWODY2 SPC AC 131735 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging gusts are possible with the stronger thunderstorms. ....Synopsis... A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from a mid-level low over the Desert Southwest to the northeast over the mid MS Valley and OH Valley. A speed max is forecast to move from KS/MO during the morning into the southern Great Lakes during the day. A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border intersection vicinity early Thursday morning. A cold front will extend from this low southwestward through southeast KS and central OK into the TX Hill Country. A warm front will extend from this low east-northeastward through central IL where showers/thunderstorms will likely focus early Thursday morning. A broad warm sector will exist ahead of the cold front Thursday morning, characterized by dewpoints ranging from the mid/upper 60s over east TX to the mid 50s near the IA/MO border. This reservoir of low-level moisture will exist beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in moderate to strong buoyancy as heating destabilizes the air mass in wake of early to midday cloud cover/convective activity. As such, thunderstorms are anticipated across much of the warm sector as the cold front gradually shifts eastward through the period. ....Mid MS Valley Thursday morning into late afternoon/early evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low and warm front early Thursday morning. General expectation is for most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential for the southern edge of these storms (and associated outflow) to move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is expected to continue eastward, reaching the Middle OH Valley by the afternoon. The presence of these early morning storms could act to shift the forecast position of the effective frontal zone farther south. Additionally, if strong outflow is realized, the resulting boundary could act as a focus for afternoon development across MO and into central IL. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the potential placement of the boundary and magnitude of destabilization. However, cool mid-level temperatures resulting in steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, dewpoints near 60 deg F and a supercell wind profile, will support organized thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. ....Middle OH Valley during the afternoon and evening... As the activity initially over the Mid MS Valley continues eastward, there is some potential it transitions from elevated to surface based (or at least near-surface based) as it interacts with the warm front progressing northward across the region. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate southerly low-level flow beneath strong westerlies will result in vertically veering low-level hodographs that could support updraft organization and even an isolated risk for a tornado. Damaging gusts and large hail are also possible with the stronger storms or thunderstorm clusters. ....Far Northeast TX and eastern OK into AR during the afternoon and evening... Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous over the region as neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights occur through the early evening. Strong destabilization is forecast across north TX into eastern OK into southwest MO by mid to late afternoon. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Low-level southerly flow (perhaps even southeasterly) is also anticipated, resulting in some enlargement to low-level hodographs. An eventual linear cluster of storms will probably evolve across western AR into southern MO as the primary severe hazards transition to linear-based storm hazards (i.e., damaging gusts, isolated risk for a tornado). ....Mid MS Valley into the Mid-South during evening and overnight... After the initial development described above, some upscale growth into one or more clusters appears plausible, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts as these clusters move eastward. Have expanded severe probabilities farther east across the lower OH Valley southward through middle TN and northern MS to account for an environment supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts late overnight. ...Smith.. 03/13/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .