Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 13 2024 08:00:31

FOUS30 KWBC 130800
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 13 2024 - 12Z Thu Mar 14 2024

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

A stationary frontal boundary is expected to drape southwest to
northeast from eastern portions of the Central Plains into the
Lower Missouri Valley and Mid Mississippi Valley regions.   The
low level southerly flow is expected to re-strengthen into this
front late Wednesday into Wednesday night/early Thursday, with
850-700mb mb moisture flux anomalies increasing to 1 to 2 standard
deviations above the mean by early Thursday morning.  This will
support potential for an increasing area of organized overrunning
convection along and to the north of this front, with potential
for localized areas of training or more than one batch of
convection moving over the same area.    The marginal risk area
fits well with where the HREF neighborhood probabilities are high
for 1"+ totals day 1 from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska,
across northern Missouri, southern Iowa and northwest Illinois.=20
While the HREF 1"+ probabilities are high over a large area, the
EAS probabilities are showing a much smaller area of probabilities
of over 40% along the Iowa/Missouri border area, suggesting poor
hi res model overlap of 1"+ areas.  2"+ HREF neighborhood
probabilities are showing a very small area of high probabilities
over the Iowa/Missouri border area, and low EAS probabilities for
2"+ amounts.  Hourly probabilities for 1"+ totals during the 0000
to 1200 UTC period are generally less than 20%.  At the moment,
the risk level is kept at marginal with hourly FFG values mostly
1.5" and greater.  Changes to the previous outlook were to
elongate it approximately 100-120 nm to the east and west and to
narrow it on the north end by about 60 nm.

Oravec


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5_L9RqoMc7f9Jykr_RJNr8xo0Ua1IHwnrCf2teNAawjt=
gYqkckLTPluVY1hgYrz2sY26fLUxwZlLqd5ruO0OflT59BQ$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5_L9RqoMc7f9Jykr_RJNr8xo0Ua1IHwnrCf2teNAawjt=
gYqkckLTPluVY1hgYrz2sY26fLUxwZlLqd5ruO0O65fMtS4$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5_L9RqoMc7f9Jykr_RJNr8xo0Ua1IHwnrCf2teNAawjt=
gYqkckLTPluVY1hgYrz2sY26fLUxwZlLqd5ruO0OU2WWmdI$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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