Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 13 2024 07:28:35

ACUS03 KWNS 130728
SWODY3
SPC AC 130727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from east Texas into the
Southeast States on Friday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper pattern early Friday morning is forecast to feature a mature
southern-stream upper low over the Lower CO River Valley, covering
much of southern/central CA, the western Great Basin, and AZ.
Shortwave ridging is anticipated downstream of this upper low from
the southern Plains into the central High Plains, with largely zonal
flow anticipated within the more confluent, single-stream flow east
of the MS River. A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to
drop through the Canadian Prairie Provinces through the day, but the
general upper pattern is expected to remain relatively unchanged
across the CONUS.

Surface pattern on Friday morning will likely feature a low over the
Hudson Valley, with a stationary front extending westward from this
low to another low over the Middle OH Valley. An extensive cold
front is expected to extend southwestward from this Middle OH Valley
low through the TX Hill Country. This cold front is forecast to make
gradual southeastward progress during the day, with thunderstorms
likely along and just ahead it throughout the period. Buoyancy is
expected to remain relatively modest ahead of this front, largely a
result of cloud cover and limited heating. Even so, deep-layer shear
should remain strong enough for some organized storm structures and
an isolated severe threat, particularly across the Southeast where
slightly stronger mid-level flow is anticipated during the
afternoon.

...Mosier.. 03/13/2024

$$

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