Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Mar 13 2024 03:07:59 AWUS01 KWNH 130307 FFGMPD MOZ000-130745- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0094 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1107 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Areas affected...Central Missouri... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 130305Z - 130745Z SUMMARY...Slow moving, possibly rotating elevated convection overcoming dry atmospheric conditions for moderate rainfall and hail production. Short-term training crossing dormant soils and therefore nearing 1-3hr FFG values suggesting isolated low-end flash flooding conditions may be possible over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A compact, but well defined mid-level shortwave can be seen in GOES-E WV suite this evening across MO. EIR 10.3um also denotes a cluster of thunderstorms continuing to expand with small overshooting tops continuing to percolate along the southwest/upwind edge of the complex. This wave remains well defined through the mid, lower levels including at the surface where a 1004 low sits within the the KC Metro with an slowly advancing cold front angling SSW through the Flint Hills and a stationary front extending through NW to north-central MO toward SE IA. VWP and RAP analysis suggest the the LLJ along/ahead of the cold front has been accelerating up to 40-45kts across SW MO before slowing/becoming convergent and isentropically ascending along and east of the deeper cyclone in proximity to I-70.=20 While surface Tds are modest in the low to mid 50s, the LLJ does have some increased moisture through depth, but still remains even seasonably average at best with total PWATs reaching 1". Though modest 30-35 kts of Effective Bulk Shear along this elevated 925-850 effective warm front/WAA axis has resulted in a few updrafts picking up weak updraft rotation. This further increases isallobaric moisture flux, while concurrently reducing forward propagation speeds. Bunkers' right moving supercell vectors suggest 15-20kts of east to east-southeast motions generally along the effective warm frontal axis. As such, this allows for cells that have already observed 1-1.5"/hr rates and 2" totals per local observations in proximity to I-70. Mid-level drying and evaporative cooling should allow for cold pool generation as well as hail generation (which is likely contaminating MRMS rain-rates/FLASH response); however, observational trends in KEAX and further upstream backbuilding noted along the upstream edge of the EIR canopy, suggests at least another round of thunderstorms and therefore training/repeating and slowed cells motions in proximity to I-70 over the next few hours is becoming a bit more likely.=20=20 While soil conditions per AHPS/NASA SPoRT are below average, they are also dormant suggesting low FFGs of ~1.5/hr or ~2/3hrs may be in range for one, maybe two isolated incidents of FFG exceedance, and therefore possible low-end flash flooding conditions over the next few hours. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6TA4Tms-7AKqKhsQmcHaRTmhGYYF3ZFPBe36BIMBUa_v3fHKF2KD-yueooh35dypKcBZ= gZIevj0F5fUp03dY5YsvK_k$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF... ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39779335 39559256 39249172 39029139 38679114=20 38249118 37989155 37969209 38179296 38539393=20 39019414 39399433 39729417=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .