Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 13 2024 00:48:34

ACUS01 KWNS 130048
SWODY1
SPC AC 130046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening from far
southeast Kansas and far northeast Oklahoma into western and
northern Missouri.

....Far Southeast Kansas/Far Northeast Oklahoma/Western and Northern
Missouri...
A 1004 mb low is currently analyzed over northeast Kansas, with the
moist axis located from near Tulsa north-northeastward to the
vicinity of the Kansas City Metro. The RAP has a pocket of MLCAPE in
the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, within which isolated thunderstorms are
ongoing. The convection is being supported by large-scale ascent
associated with a shortwave trough over eastern Kansas, and by weak
low-level convergence. Ahead of the shortwave trough, convective
coverage is expected to increase some this evening, as storms
develop and move eastward across western and northern Missouri. RAP
forecast soundings along and near the instability axis have the
strongest deep-layer shear in far southwest Missouri, where 0-6 km
shear is near 40 knots according to the Springfield, Missouri
WSR-88D VWP. This, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 8.5
C/km should be enough for isolated severe hail, and a few marginally
severe wind gusts. The threats are expected to decrease by late
evening as instability weakens across the region.

...Broyles.. 03/13/2024

$$

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