Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Mar 12 2024 19:52:29 ACUS01 KWNS 121952 SWODY1 SPC AC 121950 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening from eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma and the western Ozarks to northern Missouri. ....Discussion... No change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ...Smith.. 03/12/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ....Eastern Kansas/Northeast Oklahoma and Missouri... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the south-central Plains this morning will continue eastward, crossing the Ozarks this evening and reaching the lower Ohio River Valley by Wednesday morning. This shortwave trough will generally overlie an increasing, but immature/only modestly moist (50s F surface dewpoints) warm sector, to the east of a southwest/northeast-oriented dryline across the southern Plains toward the Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible over the region late this afternoon, and more so this evening, with a marginal large-hail and locally damaging-wind risk where storms develop. The most probable area for such development is expected across far eastern Kansas into Missouri, potentially beginning by around 530pm-6pm CDT. More uncertainty regarding storm development exists with south-southwestward extent across northeast/east-central Oklahoma. Little if any development through late afternoon/early evening may be the most probable outcome within this corridor across Oklahoma, but various forecast soundings (including 12z NAM, which admittedly may be a bit overly moist and under-mixed) suggest some plausibility to very isolated convective development preceding the mid-level trough. Farther north, thunderstorm development is most probable this evening on the north edge of the modestly moist warm sector across central/northern Missouri, near a weak/modestly delineated warm front. Increasing elevated buoyancy (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and steadily steepening lapse rates will be favorable for potentially severe hail (and even strong winds). However, weak effective shear (attributable to a 3-6km AGL flow weakness) should limit the magnitude and overall extent/duration of the large hail risk with northward extent (roughly north of 38N latitude including the I-70 vicinity). $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .