Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Mar 12 2024 08:50:25

ACUS48 KWNS 120850
SWOD48
SPC AC 120848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Multi-model consensus suggests a mature upper low will be over the
Lower CO River Valley/western AZ Friday morning, with moderate
westerly/southwesterly flow aloft extending from this low across the
southern Plains and Mid-South/Mid MS Valley. More confluent upper
flow is expected across the eastern CONUS. Thunderstorms are
expected on D4/Friday from the southern Plains and MS Valley into
the Southeast as a slow-moving cold front interacts with a modestly
buoyant airmass. A few stronger storms are possible, but current
expectation is for a largely anafrontal storm structure to limit
severe potential. There may be enough residual low-level moisture
and buoyancy along the weakening frontal zone for more thunderstorms
from the TX Coastal Plains into the Southeast on D5/Saturday and
D6/Sunday, but conditions do not look favorable for anything more
than a localized severe potential.

The southern-stream upper low is forecast to remain largely in place
through the weekend and into early next week. At the same time,
upper troughing is forecast to gradually deepen across eastern
Canada and much of the eastern CONUS. This evolution should result
in predominantly dry and stable conditions across the CONUS on
D7/Monday and D8/Tuesday.

...Mosier.. 03/12/2024

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