Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Mar 12 2024 07:32:25 ACUS03 KWNS 120732 SWODY3 SPC AC 120731 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS...AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across a large area from the Middle Mississippi Valley into eastern Oklahoma, East Texas, and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ....Synopsis... A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border vicinity early Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across eastern KS and central OK into the TX Hill Country. An expansive warm sector is expected to be in place east of this cold front, from the Mid MS Valley into the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley early Thursday morning, supported by the previous days' return flow. Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing in the vicinity of a warm front extending north-northeastward from the surface low, but much of the warm sector is currently expected to be free from any early period storms. This broad warm sector is expected to destabilize throughout the day with two primary corridors of severe thunderstorms potential, one near the surface low from southern IA/northern MO into west-central IL and another farther south from eastern OK and east TX into LA and AR. ....Southern IA/Northern MO/West-Central IL... Upper 50s dewpoints are expected south of the warm front throughout the period. Despite this somewhat modest low-level moisture, moderate to strong buoyancy is still anticipated early in the afternoon as surface temperatures climb into the low 70s, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and resulting steep mid-level lapse rates. Low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front will likely result in convective initiation amid vertical wind profiles that support supercells. There may be a tendency for storms to move north of the warm front over time, but enough residence in the warm sector is anticipated for some storms to reach maturity. Any mature supercells would be capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, strong gusts, and very large hail. ....Eastern OK and East TX into LA and AR... Weak surface troughing will likely interact with an increasingly unstable airmass across the region during the afternoon, with convective initiation anticipated around 18Z across southeast OK and northeast TX. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. How the convection evolves after the initial more discrete storms remains uncertain, with some potential for development into more linear structures given the front-parallel deep-layer vertical shear. If upscale growth is realized, the resulting convective line would then push eastward into AR and LA, with some potential for damaging gusts. ...Mosier.. 03/12/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .