Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Mar 12 2024 06:00:23 ACUS02 KWNS 120600 SWODY2 SPC AC 120558 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and a tornado or two are possible across the Lower Missouri Valley from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. ....Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to be in place across the western CONUS early Wednesday morning, with strong mid-level flow extending from the Pacific Northwest into the Southwest states throughout the western and southern periphery of the trough. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this larger trough, including one that is forecast to eject northeastward through the central Plains during the day. Surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to progress into the central Plains just ahead of its parent shortwave, likely ending the period near the KS/NE/MO border intersection. A dryline will accompany this low, gradually pushing eastward across KS and OK throughout the day and into the early evening before then stalling until the cold front arrives early Thursday morning. A warm front is also expected to extend southeastward from this low, with this front gradually moving northward throughout the day. By 00Z this warm front is expected to extend from the low over north-central KS east-southeastward into central MO. Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the vicinity of the surface low and warm front, with isolated development possible south along the dryline as well. ....Lower MO Valley... Dewpoints will likely be in the mid 50s across much of eastern KS by the late afternoon, possibly reaching into far southeast NE. Some locally higher dewpoints are possible along the warm front as well. These dewpoints, combined with surface temperatures in the mid 70s and cold mid-level temperatures, should be sufficient for airmass destabilization. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough coupled with low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front are expected to provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Initiation is currently expected to occur in the 21Z to 00Z time frame over north-central/northeast KS. The strongest mid-level flow will likely be displaced south of the region, but vertical shear should still be strong enough for supercells. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates some large to very large hail is possible. Veering low-level wind profiles with height also suggest some tornado potential exists, particularly near the warm front where low-level southeasterlies are more likely. Thunderstorm coverage will likely grow during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens, with a warm-air advection increasing as well. These storms would likely be elevated north of the warm front, with steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate vertical shear supporting hail with any more mature updrafts. ....Southeast KS...Central/Eastern OK...Far Northeast TX... A more conditional severe threat exists in this region versus farther north across the Lower MO Valley. Here, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are likely, but warmer mid-level temperatures look to cap the airmass, precluding widespread destabilization. Even so, convergence along the dryline may be able to overcome this inhibition in isolated instances, and the overall environmental conditions support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards if convective initiation is realized. ...Mosier.. 03/12/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .