Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Mar 12 2024 05:38:26

ACUS01 KWNS 120538
SWODY1
SPC AC 120536

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today from far
northeast Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas into western and
northern Missouri.

....Missouri/Far Southeast Kansas/Far Northeast Oklahoma...
Low-level moisture return will take place today from the southern
Plains into the western Ozarks, as a shortwave trough approaches
from the west. Warming surface temperatures this afternoon will
result in a corridor of instability along and near the moist axis.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough
near the instability axis late this afternoon, with this activity
spreading east-northeastward toward the Mississippi River this
evening.

RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis over
western Missouri for 00Z/Wednesday have MLCAPE reaching the 1000 to
1200 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This
thermodynamic environment, combined with moderate to strong
deep-layer shear, should be sufficient for marginally severe hail.
The storms may also produce a few isolated severe gusts. However,
any severe threat is expected to remain within a relatively small
temporal window, with the maximum threat expected around 00Z.

...Broyles/Thornton.. 03/12/2024

$$

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