Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 10 2024 12:21:11

ACUS01 KWNS 101221
SWODY1
SPC AC 101219

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, a progressive pattern will continue over the
CONUS, led by a substantial, synoptic-scale cyclone now centered
over the eastern Lower MI/Lake Huron region.  A strong, preceding
shortwave perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over
parts of NY and western New England -- will eject out of the
Northeast today as the mid/upper low approaches.  In the meantime, a
few elevated, non-severe thunderstorms may occur over portions of
coastal eastern New England, atop the related conveyor of low-level
warm advection and frontal forcing.  By 00Z, the 500-mb low should
be in the NYC area, moving well offshore of Cape Cod by 12Z.  The
trailing cold front -- analyzed at 11Z across parts of central FL,
is preceded by a thin band of convection on a low-level prefrontal
trough.  While weak MLCINH and rich surface moisture will persist
along/ahead of these boundaries, with some diurnal heating prior to
frontal passage, warm-sector southwesterlies will contribute to
limited thunderstorm coverage due to lack of stronger lift.

Elsewhere, a series of shortwave troughs will continue to traverse
high-latitude westerlies over the North Pacific, south of mean
troughing over AK and the Gulf of Alaska.  One already is well
inland over the Canadian Great Plains.  The next -- initially
extending from a low offshore of Vancouver Island, southward near
130W -- will move ashore today and deamplify to an open-wave trough.
Associated midlevel cooling and steepening lapse rates -- atop weak
but locally sufficient low-level moisture -- may support isolated
lightning over portions of the Northwest today, shutting down this
evening and from west-east with trough passage.

...Edwards/Jewell.. 03/10/2024

$$

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