Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 10 2024 09:14:05

ACUS48 KWNS 100914
SWOD48
SPC AC 100912

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0412 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Upper trough amplification will occur over the West during the
middle part of the week, with the likelihood that an upper low will
gradually become cut-off over the Southwest Deserts late in the
week. Low-level moisture return will continue to occur through Days
4-5 across the southern Plains/Ozarks. For Day 4/Wednesday, at least
some risk for severe thunderstorms may exist near the Texas/southern
Oklahoma dryline, and perhaps more so, northeastward along the
synoptic front across eastern Kansas toward the lower Missouri
Valley beneath the upper jet exit region. A categorical Slight Risk
could be warranted in future outlooks for Wednesday; however,
lingering uncertainties regarding moisture return and
destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time.

A somewhat higher probability and greater coverage of severe risk is
still expected for Day 5/Thursday, especially across
central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma.
Moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft are expected atop 60s F
surface dewpoints, to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of
the southeastward-accelerating synoptic front across the southern
Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks.

At least some severe risk will probably expand eastward toward the
Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 6/Friday, but
predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame,
especially given the potential for fairly extensive early-day
convection across the region.

...Guyer.. 03/10/2024

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