Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Mar 09 2024 19:48:33 ACUS01 KWNS 091948 SWODY1 SPC AC 091947 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA AND ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER... ....SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible through early evening across parts of Georgia/Florida and the Carolinas. ....20z Update FL/GA... Ongoing cluster of storms across north FL and southern GA has shown persistent organization with a QLCS and some supercell structures. Additional storm development over the Gulf of Mexico should continue to spread inland across the northern peninsula through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The downstream environment should remain broadly favorable for damaging gusts and a tornado or two into the evening. The severe risk should begin to wane tonight as low-level flow continues to veer and large-scale forcing for ascent moves away to the northeast. ....Carolinas... Farther north, persistent cloud cover has remained in place north of a stationary frontal zone from the NC/SC border toward Cape Fear. With limited heating, poor destabilization should limit thunderstorm development and the associated severe risk. The MRGL and SLGT have been trimmed out of these areas. To the south across eastern GA and SC, broken clouds have allowed for slow destabilization this afternoon. However, it remains unclear if additional storm development will occur through the remainder of the diurnal cycle. Surface convergence is modest and surface flow has veered considerably. Recent HRRR and RAP soundings do show minimal MLCINH suggesting at least some risk for redevelopment late this afternoon. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and strong wind fields may support a risk for damaging gusts or a brief tornado with the strongest storms. ...Lyons.. 03/09/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ....GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ....Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .