Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0211
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 09 2024 16:38:32

ACUS11 KWNS 091638
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091637=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-091800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0211
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024

Areas affected...FL Panhandle into south GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 34...

Valid 091637Z - 091800Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 34 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for a brief tornado or two and locally damaging
gusts will persist into early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The character of an ongoing QLCS has changed somewhat
over the last 1-2 hours from parts of the FL Panhandle into south
GA, with some increasing tendency toward embedded supercell
structures noted from the FL/GA border to north of Valdosta. While
the KVAX VWP indicates some modest weakening of low-level flow, both
low-level and deep-layer shear remain quite favorable for organized
convection. Meanwhile, some diurnal heating has been noted across
north FL into far south GA, with temperatures rising into the upper
70s to near 80F. This heating of a richly moist low-level airmass is
supporting MLCAPE increasing to near or above 1000 J/kg, despite
generally weak midlevel lapse rates.=20

Given the favorable environment, some threat for a tornado or two
and locally damaging gusts will likely persist into early afternoon,
both with the ongoing storm cluster near the FL/GA border, and with
any other embedded supercells that can become sustained. There has
also been some increase in convective showers ahead of the ongoing
storm cluster, and at least a transient supercell or two could
emerge out of this area as well. Some expansion of the WW 34 into a
larger portion of northeast FL may be needed if any of the warm
sector convection begins to mature.

...Dean/Smith.. 03/09/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-e0Y551fvO7tIxCnDdWez5nyySi77pYZ4PoKwhzbEUqo1qKZ-J_4aN_pPWdah74pcS0oOqrdk=
I1F-VUw5yKlzuFMb-s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29908598 31208333 31678183 31598135 30338140 29968248
            29758402 29788428 29638507 29658536 29908598=20


=3D =3D =3D
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