Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Mar 09 2024 10:52:20 AWUS01 KWNH 091052 FFGMPD SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-091630- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0093 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 551 AM EST Sat Mar 09 2024 Areas affected...Eastern FL Panhandle...Far Southeast AL...Southern GA...Adj Southern SC... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 091100Z - 091630Z SUMMARY...Continued risk for training thunderstorms and 2-4" totals resulting in possible flash flooding. DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um IR loop depicts a mature linear convective complex across Southern GA with the upstream edge across the far western portion of the FL Panhandle. In concert with regional RADAR, VWP and observations suggest another subtle low level wave is lifting northeast out of the Panhandle along the slowly sagging WSW to ENE oriented front resulting in another burst of convective development along the upwind edge. Ample deep layer moisture remains attendant to the feature with total PWats AoA 2" and the nose of central Gulf unstable air to feed the linear complex with values of 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE from VPS to SW GA. Increasing southerly flow across the Atlantic has lifted/connected the warm frontal feature across southern GA and nearing the Low country of SC. Given the favorable forcing a few more hours of intense thunderstorms with rates of 1.5-2"/hr remain likely.=20 Southward propagation of the line has begun enough to reduced duration at any given location, but still may result in streaks of 2-4" totals over the next 5-6 hrs with slow reduction in intensity/coverage as the wave lifts NE through mid-morning but will drop in latitude further into the drier/sandier soils of the Coastal Plain. Eventually into early/mid-morning, the LLJ speed max will shift out of the Gulf into GA/SC and reduce overall deep layer convergence and slowly fracture the convective line.=20 Clusters will likely continue to be highly efficient; however, the coverage and duration may reduce enough for coverage of potential areas of excessive rainfall to induce flash flooding. , However, there is ongoing flash flooding from Walton county FL across SE AL into south-central GA (Telfair county) where FFG values are already being exceeded with continued hour or two of heavy rainfall, so therefore flash flooding is considered likely. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6J0zbZiXMnVLmR38oganNu39FzcP-W7RMQRFHrTwd5wembj-Hz79zmf7ULCxJoGCLFwM= 1qwdkVDZjLbbEkkvjWjgG40$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32788100 32158065 31348127 30618326 30238497=20 30378581 30818627 31518545 32248366 32778219=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .