Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 09 2024 09:55:30

ACUS48 KWNS 090955
SWOD48
SPC AC 090953

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

....DISCUSSION...
As upper trough amplification occurs over the West, low-level
moisture return will ensue across the southern Plains and ArkLaTex
through the early/mid part of the week including Days 4/5
Tuesday/Wednesday. Little severe potential is currently expected on
Day 4/Tuesday. However, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms
will probably exist on Day 5/Wednesday near the Texas/southern
Oklahoma dryline, northeastward along the synoptic front across the
lower Missouri Valley/Midwest. Lingering uncertainties regarding
initial moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe
risk area at this time for Wednesday.

A somewhat higher probability (15 percent) severe potential is
perceived for Day 6/Thursday, particularly across central/northeast
Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. This will be well
ahead of the Southwest States upper low, with moderately strong
southwesterly winds aloft expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints to
the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the synoptic front
across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least
some severe risk may expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Southeast into Day 7/Friday, but predictability is
considerably more limited into this time frame.

...Guyer.. 03/09/2024

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