Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 09 2024 05:52:28

ACUS01 KWNS 090552
SWODY1
SPC AC 090550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are possible through
early evening across parts of the Southeast States.

....Southeast...
An extensive swath of stratiform rain is ongoing across parts of
GA/SC to the northeast of deeper convection that extends towards the
central Gulf Coast. This ongoing activity will play a pivotal role
in the overall severe threat in terms of both magnitude and timing.
Latest guidance has generally trended towards more probable deep
convection evolving east from the central Gulf Coast vicinity across
parts of north FL and south GA during the morning to afternoon. This
should occur as greater diurnal surface heating ensues ahead of it
over the FL Peninsula. Low-level hodographs will be enlarged early
with a gradual weakening trend into the afternoon as flow becomes
veered and wanes. As such, a relative peak in the tornado/wind
threat may occur during the late morning to early afternoon.

Farther north into the Carolinas, the severe threat appears
conditional on sufficient destabilization in the wake of the
extensive rain swath shifting east-northeast through this morning.
Guidance is insistent that at least weak surface-based instability
should develop by afternoon. But with the likelihood of deep
convection persisting in south GA/north FL, and recent observational
trends, MLCAPE should tend to be rather limited. Still, with
appreciable mid-level height falls and strong low to deep-layer
shear, the conditional setup could favor a few low-topped supercells
in the afternoon with a tornado/localized wind threat.

...Grams/Thornton.. 03/09/2024

$$

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