Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 09 2024 01:01:55

ACUS01 KWNS 090101
SWODY1
SPC AC 090100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHWEST GA...

....SUMMARY...
Potential for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds may
persist overnight from the central Gulf Coast northeast across parts
of south Alabama to central Georgia.

....Central Gulf Coast to central GA...
Extensive, non-severe convection is ongoing across most of the
region across a southwest to northeast-oriented quasi-stationary
front. Rather rich Gulf moisture (characterized by 2"+ PW values per
the 00Z LIX sounding) will continue to advect northeast and maintain
a conditionally favorable warm sector for nocturnal tornado
potential. Inland penetration of instability amid weak mid-level
lapse rates will remain tempered, with MLCAPE at or above 500 J/kg
likely only reaching into parts of south AL and the western FL
Panhandle. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests regenerative
convection may be reinvigorated overnight, initiating across the
central Gulf Coast and spreading northeast along the baroclinic
zone. Stronger low-level flow/shear will gradually shift
east-northeast with time, further confining the low-probability
tornado/wind threat in the early morning.

...Grams.. 03/09/2024

$$

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