Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Mar 08 2024 22:24:37 AWUS01 KWNH 082224 FFGMPD FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-090422- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0090 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 523 PM EST Fri Mar 08 2024 Areas affected...southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southeastern Louisiana Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 082222Z - 090422Z Summary...Flash flood potential continues as an MCS develops southeastward across the discussion area through 04Z. Discussion...The combination of earlier convection and light 850mb northerly flow (per RAP analyses and high-res model guidance) has allowed for an extensive front/outflow boundary to shift southward across central Mississippi and portions of southwestern Alabama and is generally located from west of Montgomery, AL to near Hattiesburg and McComb, MS. Earlier, convection focused along this boundary resulted in widespread 3-5 inch rainfall totals along the I-20 corridor in Mississippi along with several reports of excessive runoff and flooding. Recent radar and objective analyses indicate general storm motions that have allowed for training (and 1.5-2 inch/hr rain rates) in southern Mississippi over the past hour, although the southward movement of the front/outflow and west-southwesterly flow aloft has undercut deeper convection especially in southern Mississippi. This scenario has tempered the longevity of rainfall rates at times, although areas of 2 inch/hr rain rates continue to persist for at least an hour near the outflow where cells can remain at or close to surface based while maturing and becoming persistent. The ongoing scenario for flash flooding is expected to continue through 04Z, although a slow south and southeastward translation is expected to continue. This should enable training and areas of ~2 inch/hr rain rates to develop especially from southeastern Louisiana into southern Alabama through the evening along and ahead of the outflow boundary. While FFGs increase into the 3 inch/hr range with southward extent, at least local impacts are expected where heavier rainfall and/or training can impact low-lying or urbanized areas. Additional rainfall totals are expected to reach 2-3.5 inches especially where training is most pronounced. Lastly, destabilization is expected across southern Alabama through the evening which should continue to support areas of deep convection and training. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_wqvIN4tc8kquocOow1eSohzCSuERhFuOQ4JG3UZ3BXGBB08CpMAUtg20dJXa0_w1nd6= SkX4sNSsmqYEkqkBPy2rJ10$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...TAE... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32538668 32008615 30898637 30378726 30048884=20 29528978 29419072 30399161 31069107 31729037=20 32078953 32478734=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .