Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Mar 08 2024 10:55:24 AWUS01 KWNH 081055 FFGMPD ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-081645- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0088 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 554 AM EST Fri Mar 08 2024 Areas affected...Central LA through Central MS... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 081055Z - 081645Z SUMMARY...Veering upstream wind profile within broad warm advection pattern should favor back-building development with potential for training thunderstorms through early morning period. Streaks of 2-4" totals and incidents of flash flooding are considered possible DISCUSSION...CIRA Sfc-850mb LPW analysis depicts a broad triangular wedge of enhanced moisture across the northwestern Gulf angled across southeast TX and western/central LA. VWP and RAP analysis shows increasingly confluent/veering LLJ nosing across northeast LA into west-central MS at this time, providing solid 40-45kts of WAA isentropic ascent across a flat frontal zone across N LA into northeast MS at this time. Slow increase in higher theta-E air (and Tds into the 70s) will continue to encroach northeastward with broad ascent along and southeast of approaching/amplifying mid-level shortwave out of central TX.=20=20 Analysis also suggest weakening capping across this higher Theta-E air where MLCAPE are ticking up over 1000 J/kg across southeast TX. GPS total PWat values have risen to 1.7" across this area and with strong WAA/ascent and proximity to modest instability, increasing convective activity will continue to expand at the nose of the LLJ over the next few hours, slowly back-building into the richer/more unstable air after 12z. Rates of 1.5"/hr should build to 1.75", though cell motions of 30kts or greater should limit any one particular cell resulting in significant totals. However, with the approach of the wave, low level confluence will start to become more unidirectional through a greater depth and favor some upstream redevelopment/convergence. This should allow for potential for training thunderstorms from the 12-18z time period across central LA into central MS. There still remain some modest uncertainty in the latitude of convective initiation upstream, be it closer to the slowly sagging frontal zone across E TX/NW LA or on the initial outflow boundaries from ongoing/early developing convection across LA into MS. Still, the potential for a streak or two of 2-4" totals may result in a a few incidents of localized flash flooding.=20 Potential is ever so slightly higher across Carroll parish, LA to Holmes to Lowndes county, MS where upper soil conditions are that ever so slightly more saturated due to prior heavy rainfall over the 7 days per AHPS and NASA SPoRT LIS products. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!99bkODX9gBND-4chwpZ1CR-XnSCekWT5YKFoH6E3ylv9ZaZyHGHHH37KEHToi__xqf7i= OEX0va8qlWnir2OQ2SUvOB0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33698951 33438859 32598837 31998885 31528993=20 31279084 30809322 31039420 31889377 32859176=20 33249101 33599036=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .