Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 08 2024 00:54:14

AWUS01 KWNH 080054
FFGMPD
CAZ000-080652-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0085
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
753 PM EST Thu Mar 07 2024

Areas affected...Southern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080052Z - 080652Z

Summary...Slow moving convective showers will continue to pose a
flash flood risk into the evening hours. Rain rates approaching
1"/hr and isolated 1-2" totals through 06Z may lead to instances
of flash flooding, particularly for the more sensitive locations.

Discussion...A weak mid-level shortwave trough, noted in the
latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights, is slowly moving
southeastward along the southern California coast. A favorable
environment for convective showers has developed, where the
combination of colder heights aloft and a bubble of 500 J/kg of
SBCAPE has led to convective low-topped showers and thunderstorms.
Current radar estimates put hourly rain rates above 1"/hr as they
slowly drift into the Los Angeles metro.

The latest hi-res guidance supports this activity continuing for
the next several hours as it drifts south/southeast and may impact
portions of the Los Angeles metro. Rain rates up to 1"/hr will be
possible and isolated totals through late this evening could
approach 1.5-2" based on the latest HREF and HRRR runs.

While isolated in nature, given the sensitivity in the terrain
areas and urban locations, some flash flooding will continue to be
possible until instability diminishes and the convective cores
lose their intensity later this evening.

Taylor

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7t5WYyegJ2P9cSdoq71TJ_C9YBME5SVm_jc1IjRCB1uIEVyD34v4BbWlVZbhbhgr7Pam=
kp4ib9yeCyJwMk0ilkgjtmc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34561859 34441799 34211744 33951715 33601714=20
            33371734 33261767 33601825 33891902 34361899=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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