Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 07 2024 21:29:42

AWUS01 KWNH 072129
FFGMPD
TXZ000-080328-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0084
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 PM EST Thu Mar 07 2024

Areas affected...portions of west-central into north Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 072128Z - 080328Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will continue across the region
through at least 03Z tonight.

Discussion...A loosely organized MCS continues along a general
axis from near ABI east-northeastward to near DFW currently.  This
MCS has resulted in development of an outflow boundary along that
same general axis, with a maturing cold pool located just north of
that boundary.  This boundary was located perpendicular to 20-40
kt southerly 850mb flow (strongest along the I-35 corridor in
northern and central Texas), and may provide a continued focus for
redevelopment of cells generally along I-20 and vicinity through
03Z.

Additionally, deep convection was increasing in intensity and
coverage along and just ahead of a dryline extending from near
Midland to near Childress.  Evolution of this convection is a bit
uncertain, although the general consensus from models and
observations is that these storms should grow into a small cluster
and/or MCS that migrates eastward and further interacts with the
ABI/DFW outflow boundary.  The end result of this evolving
convective pattern is a relatively focused corridor of higher
rainfall totals (supported by repeating cells and mergers) that
could boost rainfall totals into the 2.5-3.5 inch range (along
with hourly totals exceeding FFG/2 inch/hr) in spots through 03Z.=20
The greatest likelihood of this axis developing will continue to
reside in the general vicinity of ABI to DFW.  Flash flood
potential will increase over time if the aforementioned scenario
plays out as anticipated.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-1tXC0KYqWhXiWBIis-UYShAgWevXCq97HrTs_yj7sQ5Uobc27PFLjLw5PHv4_d8WKOb=
pioGTh6BORxuKF2QMEtuGdo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SHV...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33699808 33639537 33019443 32289447 31819591=20
            31609692 31339891 31410057 32200114 33550023=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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