Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Mar 07 2024 19:01:37 AWUS01 KWNH 071901 FFGMPD TXZ000-072141- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0083 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EST Thu Mar 07 2024 Areas affected...west-central into north-central Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 071841Z - 072141Z Summary...A band of convection has emerged along a general axis from roughly 35 mi WSW of Abilene to near Mineral Wells. The orientation of the band suggests that at least a spotty/isolated flash flood threat should materialize through 22Z depending on persistence of storms. Discussion...A band of storms have recently formed across the discussion area generally along and just north of the I-20 corridor in west Texas near ABI. The storms are oriented generally parallel to west-southwesterly steering flow aloft (supporting localized training) and are also located on the northwestern extent of better low-level moisture/instability axes moving into the region (on low-level southerly flow). Steeper mid-level lapse rates to the west of the region (per SPC Mesoanalyses) were also contributing to a gradual (and likely elevated) destabilization across the area. Given the robust updrafts parallel to flow aloft, areas of 1+ inch/hr rain rates were already beginning to show beneath the stronger cores (estimated per MRMS), and pending convective trends, these rates may continue or locally increase, approaching FFG thresholds (~2 inch/hr) in spots. While longevity of the convective band is a bit in question due to modest/weak forcing for ascent aloft, at least an isolated flash flood risk is evident based on the recent intensification of storms (per radar/satellite) and potential for training. Models (particularly the Nam 3km) support potential for persistence of this convective band over the next 2-4 hours. Also, maturity of storms and subsequent cold-pool formation may also enhance the longevity of the storms and associated flash flood risk. The evolution of the convection will be monitored for any possible increase in flash flood potential, and may need to be re-addressed per convective trends before 22Z. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5enDi8ZKH5F0u5xB99dNp6_GNPrp0rfZaFUwU7T1VXBCGfJFxdLwCmuWykWuz_xRbnyH= Hulxx7W9pmsYqcXEpgbojgo$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33659708 33169609 32539596 31929625 31429696=20 31139798 31349926 31810020 32250032 32970005=20 33529889=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .