Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Mar 07 2024 08:29:28 FOUS30 KWBC 070829 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 328 AM EST Thu Mar 07 2024 Day 1 Valid 12Z Thu Mar 07 2024 - 12Z Fri Mar 08 2024 ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ....North-Central Texas... In coordination with FWD/Fort-Worth Dallas, TX forecast office, a Slight Risk was introduced for portions of North-Central Texas. Much of the CAMs guidance is in good agreement that a line of thunderstorms will move southeastward across north-central Texas this afternoon and this evening. The storms are likely to be in the area of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex during the evening commute this afternoon. Thus, in addition to increasing forecasts for rainfall in the area, with a widespread 1-2 inches of rain over the flood-sensitive urban area expected, any resultant flash flooding will have outsized impacts due to the time of day of the heaviest rain. The storms will form at the tail end of a dry line attached to a developing low over Oklahoma. The low will track northeastward into the evening, roughly parallel to the dry line. This track will work against a fast forward movement of the line to the southeast. The line will be moving though, as it keeps up with the intensifying feed of Gulf moisture moving into the mid-Mississippi Valley. However, without the added support of the movement of the parent low, it's still expected that any one area of the Slight Risk will see 1-3 hours of rainfall, with many areas seeing an hour of heavy rain associated with the initial line of storms. ....Central Plains to Mid-Mississippi Valley... This area will be closer to the track of the parent low as it moves from eastern Oklahoma to the MO/IL/IA junction point by Friday morning. Heavy rain will be favored as the initial line of showers and storms supported by the warm conveyor belt moves across Missouri, but as the low passes, the comma-head region north and west of the low is expected to have enough forcing and moisture-availability to extend the rainfall into the overnight hours. Eastern Kansas into western Missouri looks to be the area most likely to be impacted by the extended rainfall. For now, it appears this will remain largely south of the Kansas City Metro, but may impact Topeka. Wegman Day 2 The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6qVlPpPlRCG2LFSgEw4vJKW59i53IwFheowPFVMYh5NM= 0FbNJM9-E6gOoUh6y94ZN9C9iADi4GMhnUjA94sj_tezhVU$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6qVlPpPlRCG2LFSgEw4vJKW59i53IwFheowPFVMYh5NM= 0FbNJM9-E6gOoUh6y94ZN9C9iADi4GMhnUjA94sjkgtoKBI$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6qVlPpPlRCG2LFSgEw4vJKW59i53IwFheowPFVMYh5NM= 0FbNJM9-E6gOoUh6y94ZN9C9iADi4GMhnUjA94sjW9pl0Ow$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .