Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Mar 07 2024 00:51:07 ACUS01 KWNS 070051 SWODY1 SPC AC 070049 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...WESTERN ARKANSAS... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are likely to increase overnight across the southern into central Great Plains and portions of the Ozark Plateau, with widely scattered stronger cells posing at least some risk for severe hail. ....01Z Update... A short wave impulse, within negatively-tilted larger-scale mid-level trough now shifting across the southern Atlantic Seaboard, remains fairly vigorous as it progresses east-northeast of the southern Appalachians. Associated forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling appear to have aided a recent increase in thunderstorm development across the South Carolina coastal plain. However, destabilization remains modest, with the onset of diurnal cooling likely to further limit destabilization into the North Carolina coastal plain, as the mid-level perturbation becomes increasingly sheared across the southern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity this evening into the overnight hours. In the wake of the larger-scale scale mid-level troughing, models suggest at least some low-level drying may occur tonight across much of the northern into northwestern Gulf Basin. However, modest low-level moistening which has already occurred inland of the northwestern Gulf coast is forecast to continue to advect northward/northwestward through the southern into central Great Plains and parts of the Ozark Plateau, downstream of large-scale mid-level troughing turning inland of the Pacific coast into the Southwest. Aided by large-scale ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, beneath at least broadly difluent and divergent upper flow, destabilization is forecast to support an increase in thunderstorm activity overnight across a fairly broad area. While models suggest a narrow plume of better low-level moisture return across the lower Rio Grande Valley into the San Angelo/Abilene vicinity by daybreak Thursday, a combination of capping layers below the 700 mb level, and above 500 mb (beneath high-level ridging overspreading the southern Great Plains), might suppress thunderstorm intensities. Still, a relatively cool layer between (including temps around or below -15C) might support thunderstorm activity capable of producing small to marginally severe hail. Model forecast soundings indicate steeper mid/upper lapse rates associated with colder air aloft, supporting the development of larger elevated destabilization, north of the Red River into portions of south central/southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. Coupled with at least modest cloud-bearing layer shear, scattered stronger cells overnight probably will pose at least some risk for severe hail. ...Kerr.. 03/07/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .