Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Mar 06 2024 08:42:32 AWUS01 KWNH 060842 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-061440- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0080 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 341 AM EST Wed Mar 06 2024 Areas affected...far eastern NC into far southeastern VA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 060840Z - 061440Z SUMMARY...Training of heavy rain is expected to impact far eastern NC, including the Outer Banks, through 15Z. Flash flooding will be possible within an axis of 3-6 inches of rain, which may fall over a narrow stripe of land. DISCUSSION...08Z regional radar imagery and infrared satellite showed ongoing showers over eastern NC and offshore of the southern NC coast. Recent cloud top cooling was noted roughly 50 miles east of Cape Fear, with occasional flashes via GOES East GLM imagery over the past 1-2 hours. The recent uptick in convection was located over the Gulf Stream and on the warm side of a slow moving warm front which paralleled the coast of the Carolinas at 08Z, out ahead of an approaching low to mid-level low/trough located over AL/GA. Estimated MLCAPE just offshore of the Outer Banks and southeastern NC coast was 500 to 1000 J/kg via the 08Z SPC mesoanalysis. Loops of Blended TPW showed 1 to 1.5 inch PWATs advecting toward the coast as the warm front slowly approaches land. Increased forcing for ascent will continue to overspread the central and southern Mid-Atlantic coast as the mid-level trough advances east this morning, supporting the continued development of showers and thunderstorms offshore of the Carolinas. Unidirectional southerly flow seen in RAP forecast soundings and a gradually strengthening 850 mb wind field will allow for training of heavy rain, beneath modest diffluence aloft. The environment will be capable of hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches, but locally higher values cannot be ruled out within pockets of higher instability. The forecast slow movement of the warm front, perhaps stalling over eastern NC, will allow for repeating and training of heavy rain from near Cape Lookout to the northern Outer Banks, including locations on either side of Pamlico and Albemarle Sound and perhaps as far north as southeastern VA. Recent heavy rainfall over this region since Friday has increased susceptibility to rapid rises of water with the potential for an additional 3-6 inches of rain by 15Z. Locally heavy rain may support flash flooding, with the greatest risk occurring within urbanized/more impervious locations, but the coverage of any higher end rainfall amounts is expected to be limited in coverage. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9WJ8PXf5N00u8JTqupXPsJtt4pzFaFKDUwMTBS_ZOCQO_cfxeNVDbWtjD3Nvw3Zzj60y= 3OrUxdAfNKhjEGu3I3LS1xc$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36857590 36427523 35847513 35117535 34877597=20 34347685 34467706 35587677 36537652=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .