Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Mar 06 2024 07:07:02 AWUS01 KWNH 060706 FFGMPD SCZ000-GAZ000-061215- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0079 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 206 AM EST Wed Mar 06 2024 Areas affected...north-central GA into western SC Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 060703Z - 061215Z SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible across north-central GA into western SC through 12Z from slow moving areas of moderate to heavy rain. Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches and totals of 2-3 inches may support excess runoff within low lying and poor drainage locations. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery across GA at 0630Z showed a region of stratiform rain over northeastern GA, with peak observed hourly rainfall totals of 0.5 to 1.0 inches from downtown Atlanta to locations just east of the city. KFFC rainfall estimates appeared too low but MRMS was closer to selected gauge reports from the Wunderground.com network. Rainfall was occurring ahead of a negatively tilted upper trough over AL and southern GA, with diffluent flow downstream and southeasterly low level winds (centered near 925 mb) near 30 kt over southern GA into northern FL, converging near a strengthening 925 mb warm front over north-central GA. Convergence was being enhanced ahead of a remnant low level circulation advancing northeastward from the south-central AL/GA border as seen on longer loops of IR imagery. While PWATs were anomalous for early March (1.25 to 1.50 inches), MUCAPE was lacking according to the 06Z SPC mesoanalysis with only about 100 J/kg located along the south side of the moderate to heavy precipitation shield. However, continued low level moisture advection from the south coupled with cooling 500 mb temperatures as the mid-level reflection of the upper trough nears should act to increase MUCAPE values into the 250 to 500+ J/kg range through 12Z along with heavy rainfall coverage for north-central GA. The axis of low level forcing is expected to slowly shift east through 12Z, resulting in a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain with hourly totals approaching 1 inch at times. The axis of heavy rain will translate eastward through 12Z, resulting in localized 2-3 inch totals from north-central GA into portions of western SC. These rainfall totals may result in areas of isolated flash flooding, mainly across locations that are low lying and/or of poor drainage. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9xlTZJffvU1cwlwN6TVa-r339d5p3T7I5FPogrBnV1FbtL1wUn9zT6VkW6JQqz3RouU7= t_sAM6qMrLLFVEyTGJf-M0U$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 34728313 34488223 33988181 33538271 33288447=20 33688500 34248479=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .