Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 06 2024 01:05:57

ACUS01 KWNS 060105
SWODY1
SPC AC 060104

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CST Tue Mar 05 2024

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A SMALL PART OF NORTH TX...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the
Florida Peninsula this evening through late tonight.

....Florida Peninsula...
An MCS is moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening,
with increasing storm coverage noted farther east along the Gulf
Coast sea breeze across the west-central FL Peninsula. The 00Z TBW
sounding (adjusted for current surface observations) and objective
mesoanalysis indicate MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg across parts of the
peninsula, with sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm
organization. A marginal supercell or two will remain possible
across mainly the central peninsula this evening, with some threat
for locally damaging gusts and perhaps some hail. Low-level
flow/shear is generally rather weak, but a brief tornado cannot be
ruled out given the supercell potential within a moist environment.

Longevity of the MCS over the Gulf remains uncertain, due to
relatively weaker instability offshore of the FL Gulf Coast.
However, if organized convection can persist into parts of the
peninsula later tonight, then some threat for locally damaging gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado may accompany the remnant of the MCS as
it moves eastward.

....North-central TX...
A couple stronger storms are ongoing east of the Metroplex this
evening, but storm coverage and intensity are expected to wane with
time, as nocturnal cooling/stabilization commences within a weakly
forced environment. An isolated hail threat may accompany any
remaining stronger storms until they diminish.

...Dean.. 03/06/2024

$$

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