Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Mar 05 2024 09:53:55

ACUS48 KWNS 050953
SWOD48
SPC AC 050952

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Enhanced mid/upper-level flow associated with an upper trough will
overspread much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and
central Gulf Coast States on Day 4/Friday. Thunderstorms should be
ongoing Friday morning across parts of central/east TX. Strong
deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization,
with enough MUCAPE present for robust convection. The severe threat
on Friday should shift from TX into the lower MS Valley in tandem
with a northward-developing warm sector and low-level moisture
return. Latest guidance has trended slightly later with the upper
trough ejection, and depicts a somewhat weaker surface low.
Accordingly, it appears that the rich low-level moisture may not
advance as far northward as indicated previously across the central
Gulf Coast States. Have therefore trimmed the northern extent of the
15% severe area for Friday across central MS/AL. There will still be
a severe risk for areas closer to the coast, where a favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for
tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail with surface-based convection
through Friday night.

The upper trough and related mid/upper-level jet should continue
moving eastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on Day
5/Saturday. Some severe threat should persist across these areas
through Saturday night. However, there may be a tendency for
convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and gradually
become more elevated with eastward extent across the Southeast.
Still, parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and
GA/SC/NC will be closely monitored for possible inclusion in a 15%
severe area if confidence increases that sufficient instability will
exist to support surface-based thunderstorms and a corresponding
risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Once the surface cold front
associated with the upper cyclone clears the East Coast on Day
6/Sunday, severe potential should remain minimal across the CONUS
through early next week.

...Gleason.. 03/05/2024

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